Having led the way since August, Arsenal were knocked off the top of the Premier League on Wednesday night after being beaten 3-1 by title rivals Manchester City.
Pep Guardiola’s side may only lead the way on goal difference – and Arsenal still have a game in hand – but there will more than a few Gunners fans seriously worried City will storm away now.
This latest setback made it four matches without a win for Mikel Arteta’s team – three in the league and another loss to City in the FA Cup – and this stuttering form is becoming more than a blip.
But the title race drama is far from over, of course. City may have the pedigree when it comes to getting over the finishing line but they’ve looked more fallible this season than in most of late.
Plus they may well be distracted by their quest to win the Champions League for the first time and – unlike Arsenal – have additional workload in the FA Cup.
Manchester City moved above Arsenal at the top of the Premier League with their 3-1 win at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday night – but the title race is far from over
Arsenal find themselves in a sticky patch, having failed to win their last three league outings
City top the Premier League on goal difference but Arsenal retain a game in hand over them
The Gunners pick up their Europa League campaign at the last-16 stage next month, too.
Bearing all of that in mind, we map out how the title race could play out from here.
All fixture dates are subject to change.
THE REST OF FEBRUARY
There’s absolutely no respite for City, who play four games between now and the end of February and they’re all away from home.
Very winnable league fixtures away to Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth, who are both in the lower reaches of the table, sandwich the resumption of their Champions League campaign away to RB Leipzig next Wednesday.
While Guardiola will go with his strongest XI in Germany, he may well take the option to rotate some of his stars when they head to Championship Bristol City in the FA Cup fifth round on the last day of the month.
Arsenal only have two games left this month because of their FA Cup exit and the fact they topped their Europa League group before Christmas, which came with the perk of bypassing the play-off round that Man United are currently involved in.
However, those two league outings are away to Aston Villa and Leicester and you’d say they are fraught with more point-dropping jeopardy than City’s games.
The Gunners made hard work of beating both teams at the Emirates earlier in the season and given their bad patch, there is a real concern City will pull clear.
Arsenal fixtures: Saturday – Aston Villa (A); February 25 – Leicester City (A).
Man City fixtures: Saturday – Nottingham Forest (A); February 22 – RB Leipzig (A) Champions League last-16, first leg; February 25 – Bournemouth (A); February 28 – Bristol City (A) FA Cup fifth round.
Pep Guardiola’s side have shown repeatedly they can handle title run-ins but their quest to win the Champions League may well prove a distraction
Mikel Arteta’s side will be feeling the pressure but could have a lighter fixture list ahead
MARCH
March is often a defining month in Premier League title races and a glance at the fixture list suggests this could be Arsenal’s opportunity to claw back ground if they need to.
First up, they host Everton in a game-in-hand rescheduled from September having been postponed because of the death of Queen Elizabeth II.
After that, they face Bournemouth at home, Fulham away and Crystal Palace at home, with Arteta surely targeting at least seven points from nine on offer.
Arteta’s approach to the Europa League will be interesting. Will he be tempted to sacrifice the competition to keep their title tilt on track? He’ll need to make full use of his squad in any case.
City, meanwhile, begin the month by hosting a Newcastle side who have been moving backwards in recent weeks but who will still need points to ensure Champions League qualification.
They head to Selhurst Park before the return leg against Leipzig and their final game prior to the March international break will either be an FA Cup quarter-final or a home game with West Ham.
Given all that, we could see Arsenal go into that two-week pause back on top with a slender advantage if everything goes to form.
Arsenal fixtures: March 1 – Everton (H); March 4 – Bournemouth (H); March 9 – TBD (A) Europa League last-16, first leg; March 12 – Fulham (A); March 16 – TBD (H) Europa League last-16, second leg; March 19 – Crystal Palace (H).
Man City fixtures: March 4 – Newcastle United (H); March 11 – Crystal Palace (A); March 14 – RB Leipzig (H) Champions League last-16, second leg; March 18/19 – Possible FA Cup quarter-final or West Ham (H).
Arsenal resume their UEFA Europa League campaign next month at the last-16 stage
Success in the Champions League continues to elude City and they may well prioritise it
APRIL
April promises to be absolutely manic for both clubs – there is simply no room to manoeuvre in a packed fixture schedule.
The game that leaps from the page is, of course, the ‘rematch’ between City and Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium on April 26 – once again a midweek game.
Could that be the title decider? It’s eminently possible, being half-a-dozen games before the end of the season.
Another interesting point to raise is that Liverpool will have a huge say in who wins the title. They play City right at the start of the month and then Arsenal a week later.
The Gunners also have to travel across town to West Ham and host Chelsea in further examinations of their title mettle.
City have a kinder set of games on paper but have to go to Brighton and Fulham, who are both chasing European qualification.
If City are in the FA Cup still, their semi-final would add to the fixture backlog, causing the Brighton trip to be pushed back.
Old rivals Man City and Liverpool square up in early April with the Reds playing Arsenal too
Jurgen Klopp will no doubt relish the chance of having a decisive say in who wins the title
They also may well have the small matter of a Champions League quarter-final, though Arsenal may well be at the same point in the Europa League.
So April is when both squads will be stretched to their limit. We can expect injuries and fatigue to build up and it’ll be fascinating to see how the mid-season World Cup impacts on such things.
And even when April is out, the two may still be neck and neck.
Arsenal fixtures: April 1 – Leeds United (H); April 8 – Liverpool (A); April 13 – Possible Europa League quarter-final, first leg; April 15 – West Ham United (A); April 20 – Possible Europa League quarter-final, second leg; April 22 – Southampton (H); April 26 – Manchester City (A); April 29 – Chelsea (H).
Manchester City fixtures: April 1 – Liverpool (H); April 8 – Southampton (A); April 11/12 – Possible Champions League quarter-final, first leg; April 15 – Leicester City (H); April 18/19 – Possible Champions League quarter-final, second leg; April 22 – Possible FA Cup semi-final or Brighton and Hove Albion (A); April 26 – Arsenal (H); April 29 – Fulham (A).
MAY
It’s because of the World Cup that Premier League teams will enter May and still have at least four matches left to play.
City will certainly have more to shoehorn in if they’re still in the FA Cup and their continued Champions League participation could potentially create a real pile-up.
Their penultimate league game is at home to Chelsea and their league season ends at Brentford on May 28.
Arsenal, meanwhile, must travel to Newcastle at the start of the month, host Brighton, play Forest away and then conclude at home to Wolves.
Will it go right down to the final day like last season? Neutrals will certainly hope so and there’s every chance.
The Premier League title race went to the final day last season – with City pipping Liverpool thanks to a dramatic 3-2 win over Aston Villa – and it could well go to the wire again
This season’s Champions League final will be played in Istanbul – but not until June 10
If City reach the last four in Europe, within touching distance of the trophy they most crave, will that become their primary focus? They’d never admit it but the choice may have to be made.
That’s if they haven’t blown everybody out of sight in the meantime.
Arsenal fixtures: May 6 – Newcastle United (A); May 11 – Possible Europa League semi-final, first leg; May 13 – Brighton and Hove Albion (H); May 18 – Possible Europa League semi-final, second leg; May 20 – Nottingham Forest (A); May 28 – Wolverhampton Wanderers (H); May 31 – Possible Europa League final in Budapest.
Manchester City fixtures: May 6 – Leeds United (H); May9/10 – Possible Champions League semi-final, first leg; May 13 – Everton (A); May 16-17 – Possible Champions League semi-final, second leg; May 20 – Chelsea (H); May 28 – Brentford (A); June 3 – Possible FA Cup final at Wembley; June 10 – Possible Champions League final in Istanbul.